• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
KHALED ALJOMAA; Teimor Mohammadi; Atefeh Taklif; Touraj Dehghani
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to compare the economic efficiency of Iran's petroleum contracts, buyback contracts, and production-sharing contracts. This study also determined the optimum path for production and drilling operations in the Yadavaran oil field which has special importance because it is ...
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The purpose of this study is to compare the economic efficiency of Iran's petroleum contracts, buyback contracts, and production-sharing contracts. This study also determined the optimum path for production and drilling operations in the Yadavaran oil field which has special importance because it is a joint field with Iraq. It was estimated using real field data and the SQP algorithm by MATLAB software. First, the objective function, the constraints of each contract model, and the cost function are defined and expressed based on field data. For the objective function, the oil price is determined based on the reference price scenario and based on the forecast of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Cao et al (2009) 's cost function model is also modified by using historical field data (first development phase data) to be applied to the study field. The results show that the most efficient oil contract is the Iran petroleum contract, with a low floor for capital costs and no limit to the number of drilled wells. it was proved that the buyback contract with the ceiling of capital costs incompatible with the recovery coefficient has recorded the lowest efficiency. Also, the Iran petroleum contract can be a good alternative to the buyback contract, because it can well solve the problems of the buyback contract, especially for joint oil fields where the priority of the objective function of the maximum cumulative production over the objective function of the maximum present value of the total profit is more desirable.
ali heydari fathabad; Atefeh Taklif
Abstract
The efforts of oil importing countries to transfer from fossil fuels to non-fossil fuels and the feasibility of commercial exploitation of unconventional oil and gas reserves can jeopardize the security of demand for crude oil by exporting countries. . In this study, by calculating the oil demand risk ...
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The efforts of oil importing countries to transfer from fossil fuels to non-fossil fuels and the feasibility of commercial exploitation of unconventional oil and gas reserves can jeopardize the security of demand for crude oil by exporting countries. . In this study, by calculating the oil demand risk index from OPEC member countries during the years 2000-2014, the relationship between this variable and the price of oil by investing in the upstream sector of the oil industry of these countries during the years (2000-2012) Using panel data model with random effects has been investigated. The results show that the effect of the index of risk of demand for oil exports on investment in the upstream sector of the oil industry is negative and this effect is significant. Therefore, given the coefficient of the risk index of demand for oil exports, it can be concluded that a percentage change in the risk of demand for oil exports makes up 0.51percent of investment in the upstream sector of the oil industry in the opposite direction. In addition, the effect of oil prices on investment in the upstream of the oil industry is positive, so that a 1percent change in oil prices changes 1،12percent of investment in the upstream sector of the oil industry in the same direction.
Hadi Dibavand; Ali Taherifard; Ali Faridzad; Atefeh Taklif; mohammad mahdi bahrololoum
Abstract
IRAN`s new petroleum contract is a new generation of service contract which aimed to fix bugs from Buy-Back model. In this model some incentives have inserted to increase contractors' motivations. In this study, we consider fiscal differences and revenue division of the two models in the case of phases ...
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IRAN`s new petroleum contract is a new generation of service contract which aimed to fix bugs from Buy-Back model. In this model some incentives have inserted to increase contractors' motivations. In this study, we consider fiscal differences and revenue division of the two models in the case of phases 4 & 5 of the South Pars gas field. This study is conducted by fiscal simulation for two mentioned models and comparison the results. It is concluded that, government revenue in Buy-Back model throughout the period of production in phases 4 & 5 is bigger around 29% and 11% respectively in regard of the net present value and the discounted net present value. Also, if in Buy-Back model, production decline starts at the first year after fiscal settlement with contractor by the rate of more than 3% yearly, then it is better for the government to employ new contract model instead of Buy-Back model regarding revenue
Pouriya Shokri; Ali Faridzad; Atefeh Taklif; Touraj Dehghani
Abstract
The act of planning in order to reach optimum production from crude oil reserves with emphasizing on technical limitations and economic modeling and forecasting, is known as a necessity to earn the maximum profit from oil export incomes and providing national intertemporal interests for oil producing ...
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The act of planning in order to reach optimum production from crude oil reserves with emphasizing on technical limitations and economic modeling and forecasting, is known as a necessity to earn the maximum profit from oil export incomes and providing national intertemporal interests for oil producing and exporting countries. This study estimates the optimal trend of crude oil production from south Azadegan Iranian oil field by the metaheuristic algorithm of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) on a thirty-year period. The concept of maximum efficient rate (MER) is employed to reach the best simulation of technical and physical field properties and moreover, the three price scenarios and two discount rate scenarios are used to apply the economic dynamics of crude oil world market. The results show that applying EOR programs simultaneously during the production by gas injection into the anticline of SARVAK reservoir, proven reserve of the field can be increased up to 6 billion barrels in this period. It also increases the cumulative production up to 3 billion barrels during the simulation period which was about 1.4 billion barrels based on the present RMDP
Alireza Ghafari; Atefeh Taklif
Abstract
The lack of observing maximum efficient recovery in the process of production from South Pars-North Dome super-giant field has resulted in serious damage to its rate of recovery. Despite the existence of conventional strategies for exploiting joint fields in international treaties, Iran and Qatar has ...
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The lack of observing maximum efficient recovery in the process of production from South Pars-North Dome super-giant field has resulted in serious damage to its rate of recovery. Despite the existence of conventional strategies for exploiting joint fields in international treaties, Iran and Qatar has not attempted to utilize these treaties in order to arrive at an efficient production trajectory. To achieve a feasible strategy, the use of rational decision-making model is recommended in this paper. This will allow both countries to formulate joint decisions in reservoir management towards achieving maximum efficient recovery from this field should the conditions and assumption of the model are satisfied. In order to achieve this objective it is necessary that both countries initiate fundamental improvements in their oil and gas legal systems. Hence a number of necessary improvements are introduced upon the identification of some weaknesses in oil and gas law in both countries.
Masoud Derakhshan; Atefeh Taklif
Abstract
We have shown that the reliance on foreign investment within the framework of oil contracts with international oil companies has not been and will not be productive in the transfer and development of technology in Iranian upstream oil industry unless the following conditions are satisfied: i) adequate ...
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We have shown that the reliance on foreign investment within the framework of oil contracts with international oil companies has not been and will not be productive in the transfer and development of technology in Iranian upstream oil industry unless the following conditions are satisfied: i) adequate growth in the propositional and prescriptive knowledge related to oil industry to create a satisfactory absorption capacity, and ii) the active role of regulatory institutions for supervising, managing and enhancing efficiency in the market for technology to secure an effective utilization of the absorption capacity. It is emphasized that a careful identification of players in the market for oil technology transfer and development, and the realization of the processes of weakening and strengthening positions of international oil companies and service oil companies in this market, respectively, is the prerequisite in the design of optimum oil technology policies in Iran. Despite the importance of contractors in the recognition of the necessity of technological development in the chain of oil operations and conveying that to technology developers, we have noted that the scarcity of financial resources for investment in the transfer and development of technology as well as the shortcomings in the optimum utilization of the absorption capacity in Iran imply that the regulatory institutions in the market for oil technology should become more efficient and assume more active role in managing this market. It is shown that these institutions can direct the process of the transfer and development of oil technology along with the national strategies in industrial development by prioritizing the technologies which are consistent with the objectives of oil sector and at the same time having spillover effects to certain key industries in the national economy.
Atefeh Taklif
Volume 2, Issue 8 , October 2013, , Pages 45-67
Abstract
Gas Exporting Counties Forum (GECF) in an inter-governmental institution, whose impact on gas market has always been a topical issue. The main body of research work done in this regard, which has been carried out mainly by experts in consuming countries, is centered around the analysis of GECF’s ...
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Gas Exporting Counties Forum (GECF) in an inter-governmental institution, whose impact on gas market has always been a topical issue. The main body of research work done in this regard, which has been carried out mainly by experts in consuming countries, is centered around the analysis of GECF’s impact on natural gas price in consuming markets. Unfortunately the question of homogeneity or heterogeneity of the member countries and the role which this question may play in the success of strategies and objectives of this organization has been left unattended. In this paper, we have first demonstrated the heterogeneity of member countries and then by using defined appropriate indices, member countries are ranked according to their impacts on policies and the realization of GECF’s objectives in the short, medium and long terms. The paper concludes, according to our defined criteria, that Russia, Qatar and Algeria are member countries with highest impact on GECF’s policies in the short and medium term, while Russia, Qatar and Iran are the three influential member countries regarding GECF’s long term policies.
